The international furniture trade is in a state of uncertainty without precedent. The main cause  of this uncertainty is the unpredictability of trade policies and tariff measures, i.e. tariffs, which appear likely to persist. This clearly emerges from the World Furniture Outlook 2026 Report, the publication of CSIL, Centro Studi Industria Leggera, in English, which provides an overview of the state and prospects of the global furniture sector.

The effects of tariffs in 2026

CSIL's preliminary estimates for 2025 indicate a very slight increase in global furniture trade compared to the previous year, at current US dollar values; moreover, it highlights that the effects of the tariffs, introduced in mid-October, will become evident in 2026, forcing a postponement of recovery prospects. According to CSIL analysts, future prospects are therefore negatively influenced by the uncertainty of trade policies, which remains high in the absence of clear and lasting agreements between trading partners. 

European countries are the top performers

The trade landscape remains unchanged: the leading furniture exporting country is China, followed at a distance by Vietnam, Poland, Italy and Germany.

After a strong increase in 2021, Chinese exports fell substantially in 2022 and 2023, with a partial recovery in 2024, which was however erased by the sharp decline recorded in 2025, bringing furniture exports almost back to 2023 levels.

On the other hand, the main furniture importers are the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands. The furniture imports by the United States amounted to 41 billion dollars in 2024, representing about a quarter of global imports. In 2025, the implementation of the tariffs and, above all, the widespread climate of uncertainty led to a reduction in imports. According to preliminary estimates, European countries appear to be the best performers, although the data are expressed in current US dollars and are influenced by fluctuations in the euro–US dollar exchange rate. 

According to the CSIL World Furniture Outlook 2026 Report the international scenario will be as follows:

A new measurement tool

To better understand the situation, starting with this edition of the World Furniture Outlook Report, CSIL has introduced for the first time a new measurement tool, a vulnerability indicator, the Country Vulnerability Index/Furniture Export (FEXVI). The FEXVI is a composite indicator that assesses the external vulnerability of each country's furniture industry and quantifies susceptibility to external shocks by analyzing trade dependencies and competitive positions. High scores, up to 100%, indicate a high risk of external vulnerability, while low scores, down to 0%, suggest lower vulnerability. Currently, the countries with the highest FEXVI also have a large share of exports to the United States.

Forecasts for 2026 

As for forecasts for 2026, which are very difficult to outline, the Report CSIL believes that global GDP growth will slightly decrease, from an estimated 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, but should then return to 3.2% in 2027. 

The global economy is adapting to a context redefined by new economic policy measures. Some excesses in tariff increases have been mitigated, thanks to subsequent agreements and recalibrations; however, the overall context remains volatile. Risks are skewed to the downside. Prolonged uncertainty, greater protectionism and labor supply shocks could reduce growth. Fiscal vulnerabilities, potential corrections in financial markets and erosion of institutions could threaten stability. 

Persistent uncertainty continues to negatively affect  the economic climate in the furnishing sector, particularly with regard to investment decisions by entrepreneurs and household spending behaviors. Therefore, after difficult years in 2024 and 2025, global furniture consumption is expected to grow by about 1% in 2026.