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FORECASTS ON THE FURNISHING SECTOR IN ITALY AND AROUND THE WORLD

FORECASTS ON THE FURNISHING SECTOR  IN ITALY AND AROUND THE WORLD

It has recently taken place in Milan the usual appointment with CSIL for the presentation of the two Reports: World Furniture Outlook 2016 and Report of Forecast on the Furnishing Sector in Italy, 2016 -2018. At the event they were present ten speakers and a public of over 200 participants in representation of the world of business, of the professional associations, of public and private institutions, of operators of the furnishing system, economists and specialised press. The macroeconomic sceneries that serve as background to the Reports, they have been elaborated by Prometeia within a long and precious collaboration with CSIL and they have been introduced at the start of Seminar by Stefania Tomasini of Prometeia. In the first part of the Seminar Sara Colautti, Industry and Country Studies CSIL manager, she has introduced the forecasts on the furnishing sector in 2016 and the global scenery of the markets. The "Reports of Forecast on the Furnishing Sector in Italy" it provides an updated and detailed overview of the perspectives showing  the possible elements of risk and the possibilities offered by the future scenery. The edition 2015 includes an analysis of the following compartments: stuffed furniture, furniture for the kitchen, home furniture and furniture for office with first final data for 2015 and forecasts to 2018 for production, export, internal consumption and importations and a focus in which the strategies of investment of the Italian companies are analysed in last five years. The second part of the meeting has entertained the deepening Focus about the theme: 'Italy which invests.' A panel of speakers of the entrepreneurial, associative and institutional world discussed on this theme. There has been talk of companies and of business networks, of diffused innovation, of investments in technologies, material and new applications, of innovative format in the furniture distribution, of certification of product and perspectives on the Italian market and on the international markets. The Seminar has been realised with the collaboration of Federmobili, with the support of the sponsors Designbest, Feneal-UIL, Filca-CISL, Fillea-CGIL, Fulgor Milano, IVM Chemicals and Trevira. The macroeconomic framework in the three-years period 2016-2018 According to the international scenery hypothesized in the Reports CSIL the world economy continues to grow but in moderate and irregular way . On the one hand USA will grow of 2,5% and the Countries of the European area they will consolidate the resumption, on the other hand the developing Countries will be interested from a deceleration of the rate of growth in comparison to the last forecasts. Rises of the international prices of industrial raw materials are not anticipated before 2017.

The worldwide market of furniture The worldwide consumption of furniture valued at prices of production it is of around 455 million dollars USA. The degree of openness of the markets is currently of the order of 28%. Principal importing countries of furniture are United States, Germany, United Kingdom and France. China has more than doubled its exports by 25 million dollars in 2009 to more than 53 million dollars in 2015, but in the last years the rhythm of growth is very decreased. The other great exporters of furniture are Germany, Italy and Poland. (Graphic 1) In 2016 the growth of the consumptions will be modest, below 3% for the world. The only area in growth the most sustained is Asia and Pacific, but the forecasts must be considered with caution, for the uncertainty of the perspectives for China. For the international commerce of furniture the forecasts are growing very partially in the 2016.

The furnishing sector in Italy in 2016-2018 2015 has marked the end of the fall in consumptions of furniture thanks to the pursuance of the expansive politics laid down by the Law of Stability, thanks to the containment of the inflation and thanks to the improvement of the available income in real terms and of the climate of trust of the families. The export is continuing to increase, both thanks to the markets of the European union and to those extra European. The growth of the foreign sales and the substantial stability of the sales on the internal market have determined a growth of the total billing of the sector, which will be attested around 1 ,8% in 2015. For the furnishing industry in Italy the year 2016 will be a year of consolidation of the recorded tendencies of 2015. In particular, the confirmation of the bonus furniture concerning the restorations and the introduction of the bonus young couples will sustain the consumptions of furniture and they will be added to the positive trend of the other determiners of the question. As it regards the exports, in 2016 the Euro next to the parity towards the dollar, the ability of the Italian companies to diversify the markets and the maintenance of the competitiveness in terms of report quality / price they will have positive implications on the sales of furniture. In 2017 the internal question will also profit of resumption of the investments in residential housebuilding, of the improvement of the credit conditions (already started in 2016) and of the decrease of the unemployment rate and in parallel the foreign question will continue along a path of positive growth determining a new increase of the production. In 2018 the Italian economy will grow to a rhythm around 1 ,3%. About the content of the reports further information are available on the site www.csilmilano.it and www.worldfurnitureonline.com

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