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Estimated Seminar Csil: the furnishing markets in Italy and in the world in 2017

Estimated Seminar Csil: the furnishing markets in Italy and in the world in 2017

The 34°edition of the Estimated Seminar CSIL on the furnishing markets in Italy and in the world, which take place in Milan on Friday 25th  November, it found great interest among the operators and the press of sector. The usual end-of-the-year appointment has seen the presentation of the two Reports "World Furniture Outlook 2017" and " Estimated Report on the Furniture Sector in Italy, 2017-2019", with the presence of a panel of ten chairmen and a qualified public in representation of the world of the industries, of the associations, of public and private institutions, fairs, universities, operators of the furniture-furnishing system, economists and specialized press. The macroeconomic sceneries, that serve as background to the Reports, have been elaborated by Prometeia within a long collaboration with CSIL and they have been introduced during the  opening of the Seminar by Stefania Tomasini of Prometeia. In the first part of the Seminar, Sara Colautti, manager Industry and Country Studies of CSIL, has introduced the forecast on the furniture sector in 2016 and the global scenery of the markets included in the two reports.   World Furniture Outlook 2017 contains analytical data on the furniture industry and forecast on the growth of the need of furniture in 2017-2018 in 70 Countries, of which: 35 European countries, 15 Countries of Asia and the Pacific, 12 of the Middle East and of Africa, 3 of the North America and 5 of the South America.   The Estimated Report on the furniture Sector in Italy furnishes updated and detailed overview of the perspectives of the industry and of the Italian furnishing market showing both the possible elements of risk and the possibilities offered by the future scenery. The study includes an analysis for the furniture sector in its complex and for the followings compartments: stuffed furniture, furniture for the kitchen, home furniture and for the office with preliminary data for 2016 and forecast to 2019 for production, export, inside consumption and imports.     The second part of the meeting CSIL has entertained the Focus of deepening on the topic: 'From the digital factory to the smart city. Creativeness and technologies in the fourth industrial revolution.' A panel of chairmen of the entrepreneurial, associative, institutional and academic world is compared on this topic that represents an important bet for the future. The new sceneries of the productive culture have been delineated, analyzing the evolution of the digital innovations on the processes and the role of the technologies in the integrated run which goes from the project to the consumption. There has been mentioned systems of automation and software of dialogue in the interconnected factory 4.0, the role of the IoT (Internet of Things), the value of the project and the new project paradigms for the man and the environment in the smart cities.

The macroeconomic picture in the triennium 2017-2019

The international scenery that serves as background to the Reports CSIL is the following one:     •    In 2016 the world gross domestic product is increasing of 2,8% recording a new deceleration of the rate of growth owed to a less vivacious course of the economies industrialized in comparison to the previous year (Table 1). While USA are growing of 1 ,5% and the European area countries of  1,6%, the emergent countries are confirming the 2015 growth rate that it reaches +3,7%.     •    In the triennium of forecast this trend will be confirmed with the emergent countries that as early as 2017 they will grow of 4% while the industrialized countries will be maintained in average around 1,6 - 1,7%.     •    The macroeconomic picture goes improving in Brazil and Russia and the indicators show a stabilization of the growth in China and the continuous increase in India.     •    The new light depreciation of the European expectation for 2017 will again sustain the exports of the European countries, but it will be the dynamic of the domestic demand to act as motor for the growth of the European area. The absence of a raising policy on the growth and the insecurity due to Brexit and  to the numerous electoral appointments in 2017 they still weigh on the possibilities of a firmer recovery of the economy.     •    The international commerce of handmade articles in 2016 has suffered a new deceleration and also in 2017 it is estimated to increase only of 2,5% in real terms. Only in 2018-2019 the growth will return to go up to 3%.     •     For the prices of industrial raw materials a moderate recovery of the prices has been anticipated.     •    For Italy the forecast for the PIL shows a prosecution of the moderate resumption guided by the domestic demand while the net exports will give a void contribution to the growth in the triennium of forecast. Italian economy is estimated, in fact, to grow of 0,8% in 2017 and of 1% in 2018.       •    In 2017-2019 it figures to be a growth of the private consumptions, even if to inferior levels to that of 2016  and sustained by an increase of the disposable income of the families in real terms despite the appearance of some first signals of inflation and facilitated by a positive contribution from the fiscal policy.       •    Despite the favorable context the investments in machineries and equipment fail to take off in 2016 while it is continuing the growth of the investments in means of transport. In the triennium of forecast the situation will slightly improve for the categories above while for the investments in constructions the resumption is still very weak.     •    The foreign demand will betray again some deceleration of the exports growth accompanied by an increase of the imports produced by the resumption of the domestic demand and it will be stable in all over developments of forecast.

The world furniture market The world furniture consumption appraised to prices of production is around 395 billion dollars USA. The degree of openness of the markets (which is the relationship between imports and consumptions) is currently of 30% of the order. The principal importing countries of furniture are United States, Germany, United Kingdom and France. During the last 6 years China, that is the first exporter in the world has more than doubled his exports: from 25 billion dollars in 2009 it is passed to more than 53 billion dollars in 2015 but the preliminary respect for 2016 introduces for the first time after the world crisis, a reduction of Chinese export to little more than 49 billion dollars. The other great exporters of furniture like Germany, Italy and Poland keep on growing also in 2016. In 2017 the growth of the consumptions will be contained. The only anticipated area in growth, the most sustained is Asia and Pacific. For the foreign commerce of furniture the forecasts for 2017 are of a reduction of 1% in current dollars of the amount of the international exchanges.

The furniture sector in Italy in 2016-2018 2016 - The internal market is recording a new growth although still rather contained (+1,3% in real terms) always accompanied by a positive course of the sales on the international markets despite a deceleration of the foreign demand. As for the exports, in 2016 the Euro to 1,11 on the dollar, the ability of the Italian enterprises to diversify the markets and the maintenance of the competitiveness in terms of price performance they allowed the sales on the foreign markets to grow of 2% in real terms. 2017 - It will be again a year full of uncertainty, in which the growth of the international commerce will also stagnate with effects on the Italian exports; on the internal market braking elements will still remain but not such to undermine a growth even if inferior to 1% in real terms. The Law of Stability for 2017 still contains elements of support to the consumptions, but today it can be implied that they won't be such to be sustained a more elevated growth of consumptions of furniture in comparison to that recorded in 2016. As for the exports, the foreseen light depreciation of the Euro towards the dollar will have a positive influence on the course of the sales of furniture, that however it will go to meet with a foreign demand in deceleration. The Italian industries can still enjoy some positive signals that will arrive from the countries of the European union, but in less consistent measure; on the front of the emergent countries it is anticipated a resumption of the demand from countries of the Middle East, while difficulties will remain on the Russian market. In 2017 it is expected therefore a growth of the exports equal to 1 ,8% constant prices. 2018-2019 - in these two years the Italian economy will grow to a rhythm around 1%. Motor of the growth will be the internal demand while the sale with the foreign countries will substantially stay stable.

The two reports are available: - Report of forecast on the furniture sector in Italy in 2015-2017, ed. 2016, Italian language, pdf, list price euro 800,00 + IVA - World Furniture Outlook 2017, ed. 2016, English language, pdf, list price euro 1600 + IVA   www.csilmilano.com www.worldfurnitureonline.com

 

 

 

The 34°edition of the Estimated Seminar CSIL on the furnishing markets in Italy and in the world, which take place in Milan on Friday 25th  November, it found great interest among the operators and the press of sector. The usual end-of-the-year appointment has seen the presentation of the two Reports "World Furniture Outlook 2017" and " Estimated Report on the Furniture Sector in Italy, 2017-2019", with the presence of a panel of ten chairmen and a qualified public in representation of the world of the industries, of the associations, of public and private institutions, fairs, universities, operators of the furniture-furnishing system, economists and specialized press. The macroeconomic sceneries, that serve as background to the Reports, have been elaborated by Prometeia within a long collaboration with CSIL and they have been introduced during the  opening of the Seminar by Stefania Tomasini of Prometeia. In the first part of the Seminar, Sara Colautti, manager Industry and Country Studies of CSIL, has introduced the forecast on the furniture sector in 2016 and the global scenery of the markets included in the two reports.   World Furniture Outlook 2017 contains analytical data on the furniture industry and forecast on the growth of the need of furniture in 2017-2018 in 70 Countries, of which: 35 European countries, 15 Countries of Asia and the Pacific, 12 of the Middle East and of Africa, 3 of the North America and 5 of the South America.   The Estimated Report on the furniture Sector in Italy furnishes updated and detailed overview of the perspectives of the industry and of the Italian furnishing market showing both the possible elements of risk and the possibilities offered by the future scenery. The study includes an analysis for the furniture sector in its complex and for the followings compartments: stuffed furniture, furniture for the kitchen, home furniture and for the office with preliminary data for 2016 and forecast to 2019 for production, export, inside consumption and imports.     The second part of the meeting CSIL has entertained the Focus of deepening on the topic: 'From the digital factory to the smart city. Creativeness and technologies in the fourth industrial revolution.' A panel of chairmen of the entrepreneurial, associative, institutional and academic world is compared on this topic that represents an important bet for the future. The new sceneries of the productive culture have been delineated, analyzing the evolution of the digital innovations on the processes and the role of the technologies in the integrated run which goes from the project to the consumption. There has been mentioned systems of automation and software of dialogue in the interconnected factory 4.0, the role of the IoT (Internet of Things), the value of the project and the new project paradigms for the man and the environment in the smart cities.

The macroeconomic picture in the triennium 2017-2019

The international scenery that serves as background to the Reports CSIL is the following one:     •    In 2016 the world gross domestic product is increasing of 2,8% recording a new deceleration of the rate of growth owed to a less vivacious course of the economies industrialized in comparison to the previous year (Table 1). While USA are growing of 1 ,5% and the European area countries of  1,6%, the emergent countries are confirming the 2015 growth rate that it reaches +3,7%.     •    In the triennium of forecast this trend will be confirmed with the emergent countries that as early as 2017 they will grow of 4% while the industrialized countries will be maintained in average around 1,6 - 1,7%.     •    The macroeconomic picture goes improving in Brazil and Russia and the indicators show a stabilization of the growth in China and the continuous increase in India.     •    The new light depreciation of the European expectation for 2017 will again sustain the exports of the European countries, but it will be the dynamic of the domestic demand to act as motor for the growth of the European area. The absence of a raising policy on the growth and the insecurity due to Brexit and  to the numerous electoral appointments in 2017 they still weigh on the possibilities of a firmer recovery of the economy.     •    The international commerce of handmade articles in 2016 has suffered a new deceleration and also in 2017 it is estimated to increase only of 2,5% in real terms. Only in 2018-2019 the growth will return to go up to 3%.     •     For the prices of industrial raw materials a moderate recovery of the prices has been anticipated.     •    For Italy the forecast for the PIL shows a prosecution of the moderate resumption guided by the domestic demand while the net exports will give a void contribution to the growth in the triennium of forecast. Italian economy is estimated, in fact, to grow of 0,8% in 2017 and of 1% in 2018.       •    In 2017-2019 it figures to be a growth of the private consumptions, even if to inferior levels to that of 2016  and sustained by an increase of the disposable income of the families in real terms despite the appearance of some first signals of inflation and facilitated by a positive contribution from the fiscal policy.       •    Despite the favorable context the investments in machineries and equipment fail to take off in 2016 while it is continuing the growth of the investments in means of transport. In the triennium of forecast the situation will slightly improve for the categories above while for the investments in constructions the resumption is still very weak.     •    The foreign demand will betray again some deceleration of the exports growth accompanied by an increase of the imports produced by the resumption of the domestic demand and it will be stable in all over developments of forecast.

The world furniture market The world furniture consumption appraised to prices of production is around 395 billion dollars USA. The degree of openness of the markets (which is the relationship between imports and consumptions) is currently of 30% of the order. The principal importing countries of furniture are United States, Germany, United Kingdom and France. During the last 6 years China, that is the first exporter in the world has more than doubled his exports: from 25 billion dollars in 2009 it is passed to more than 53 billion dollars in 2015 but the preliminary respect for 2016 introduces for the first time after the world crisis, a reduction of Chinese export to little more than 49 billion dollars. The other great exporters of furniture like Germany, Italy and Poland keep on growing also in 2016. In 2017 the growth of the consumptions will be contained. The only anticipated area in growth, the most sustained is Asia and Pacific. For the foreign commerce of furniture the forecasts for 2017 are of a reduction of 1% in current dollars of the amount of the international exchanges.

The furniture sector in Italy in 2016-2018 2016 - The internal market is recording a new growth although still rather contained (+1,3% in real terms) always accompanied by a positive course of the sales on the international markets despite a deceleration of the foreign demand. As for the exports, in 2016 the Euro to 1,11 on the dollar, the ability of the Italian enterprises to diversify the markets and the maintenance of the competitiveness in terms of price performance they allowed the sales on the foreign markets to grow of 2% in real terms. 2017 - It will be again a year full of uncertainty, in which the growth of the international commerce will also stagnate with effects on the Italian exports; on the internal market braking elements will still remain but not such to undermine a growth even if inferior to 1% in real terms. The Law of Stability for 2017 still contains elements of support to the consumptions, but today it can be implied that they won't be such to be sustained a more elevated growth of consumptions of furniture in comparison to that recorded in 2016. As for the exports, the foreseen light depreciation of the Euro towards the dollar will have a positive influence on the course of the sales of furniture, that however it will go to meet with a foreign demand in deceleration. The Italian industries can still enjoy some positive signals that will arrive from the countries of the European union, but in less consistent measure; on the front of the emergent countries it is anticipated a resumption of the demand from countries of the Middle East, while difficulties will remain on the Russian market. In 2017 it is expected therefore a growth of the exports equal to 1 ,8% constant prices. 2018-2019 - in these two years the Italian economy will grow to a rhythm around 1%. Motor of the growth will be the internal demand while the sale with the foreign countries will substantially stay stable.

The two reports are available: - Report of forecast on the furniture sector in Italy in 2015-2017, ed. 2016, Italian language, pdf, list price euro 800,00 + IVA - World Furniture Outlook 2017, ed. 2016, English language, pdf, list price euro 1600 + IVA   www.csilmilano.com www.worldfurnitureonline.com

 

 

 

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